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CATALYST

Palantir Q1 2026 results after the U.S. market close Monday, May 4, 2026; webcast at 5:00 PM ET.

THESIS

Best immediate setup because the catalyst is closest and the chart is not overbought. Finviz shows price `$139.11`, RSI(14) `45.16`, SMA20 `-1.88%`, SMA50 `-4.06%`, SMA200 `-15.35%`, ATR(14) `$6.48`, and relative volume `0.61`. That is not a clean trend breakout yet, but it gives better entry asymmetry than chasing already-extended AI hardware names. If Q1 confirms commercial AI growth and guidance holds, the stock can reclaim the 20/50-day averages quickly.

RISK

Valuation is still high, the stock is below major moving averages, and weak guidance or software-sector multiple compression can turn the earnings reaction into a failed bounce.

RULE

Buy only if it holds above the prior close area or reclaims the 20-day line with volume. Use a hard loss cap near `$132` from the `$139.11` snapshot, roughly one ATR / 5% below. If earnings produces an `8%` to `12%` move, take profit rather than turning it into a long story.

CATALYST

AMD fiscal Q1 2026 results after the market close Tuesday, May 5, 2026; conference call at 5:00 PM ET.

THESIS

Highest liquid AI-chip upside outside current holdings. The catalyst is confirmed and the stock has real momentum into the print: Finviz shows price `$354.49`, RSI(14) `78.95`, SMA20 `+27.63%`, SMA50 `+52.64%`, SMA200 `+68.50%`, ATR(14) `$15.97`, and relative volume `1.08`. This is technically powerful but overbought, so the edge is not "cheap"; the edge is AI earnings torque if data-center CPU/GPU demand keeps beating expectations.

RISK

Overbought chart, very high expectations, and any cautious AI accelerator, margin, or capex commentary can punish the stock fast. Finviz's target-price snapshot is below the current price, which reinforces that this is a momentum trade, not a value entry.

RULE

Do not chase a gap-up before May 5. Prefer a pullback/hold above the prior-close area around `$337`; cut if it loses that zone decisively. If it runs `10%` before or immediately after earnings, trim the gain.

CATALYST

Coinbase Q1 2026 results after the market close Thursday, May 7, 2026; webcast at 2:30 PM PT.

THESIS

Best non-AI high-beta candidate on the list. Finviz shows price `$187.77`, RSI(14) `48.74`, SMA20 `-0.29%`, SMA50 `+0.39%`, SMA200 `-29.18%`, ATR(14) `$11.73`, relative volume `0.61`, and short float `11.75%`. The chart is not extended, expectations have already been lowered by crypto-volume weakness, and the May 7 print can move the stock hard if subscription/services, USDC, derivatives, or trading-volume commentary beats a low bar.

RISK

Bitcoin/crypto weakness, lower trading volumes, regulatory headlines, and a weak transaction-revenue guide can break the setup. This is the least fundamentally clean of the three.

RULE

Buy only if it holds the `$181` to `$188` base and crypto tape is not falling apart. Use a loss cap near `$178`, roughly one ATR / 5% below the snapshot. Take partial profit on a double-digit earnings reaction.

CATALYST

Q2 2026 results late July 2026 (informational, not gating). Real driver is FY2026/27 defense budget appropriation cadence, F-35 deliveries, missile/munitions replenishment cycle.

THESIS

Deep-value defense prime, dislocated from sector peers. Alpaca live snapshot shows price `$512.94`, SMA20 `-10.73%`, SMA50 `-16.60%`, sitting `-25.79%` off the 60-day high — that is a multi-quarter unwind, not a single bad print. Lockheed's `$173B` backlog gives multi-year revenue visibility regardless of macro. Trump-era defense reauthorization, restocking munitions consumed since 2022, F-35 lot 18-20 deliveries, hypersonics, and missile defense are all funded multi-year. Position size around the 50-day reclaim, not before.

RISK

Continuation of the technical breakdown; specific program risk (F-35 sustainment cost overruns, hypersonics program slips); CR / continuing resolution that delays new starts; rotational selling out of defense if peace narrative gains traction. This is not a fast story stock — patience required.

RULE

Scale in only on a 20-day reclaim or a confirmed higher low. Hard loss cap at the 60-day low (`~$485` zone). Take partial profit on a 20% rebound to the prior high; let the rest run on multi-quarter thesis.

CATALYST

Q2 2026 results mid-July 2026 (informational). Real driver is the multi-year EUV / High-NA EUV deployment cycle into TSMC, Samsung, Intel foundry, and SK hynix; China export-control inflection points.

THESIS

Single-supplier monopoly on the lithography step that gates every advanced-node fab on Earth. Live snapshot price `$1,426.90`, SMA20 `-0.42%`, SMA50 `+1.81%`, off the 60-day high `-7.78%` — mid-trend, not extended, not broken. Order-book visibility extends into 2027–28 with High-NA shipments ramping. Separates the equity from any single AI hardware cycle: AMD/NVDA can rotate, ASML wins both ways. China exposure is capped, which is a feature not a bug post-2024 export rules.

RISK

Cyclical memory or foundry capex slowdown; sharper China revenue impairment than already priced; competition from Canon nanoimprint at trailing nodes (real but slow); FX swing on a Euro strengthening cycle.

RULE

Stage entries on weakness toward the 50-day. Loss cap at the 60-day low (`~$1,316` zone). Add only if the next book-to-bill print confirms order momentum; trim if it goes parabolic into the July call.

CATALYST

Q2 2026 results late July 2026 (informational). Real driver is the multi-year buildout of AI-data-center power capacity — gas turbines, grid hardware, nuclear small-modular options — with order book extending well past 2027.

THESIS

Different exposure shape than the existing `VST` holding: VST is the power *generator* selling capacity into PJM/ERCOT; GEV is the power *equipment* maker selling turbines and grid gear that every utility — including VST's competitors — must buy. Live snapshot price `$1,063.32`, SMA20 `+3.85%`, SMA50 `+15.20%`, off 60-day high `-9.97%` — uptrend intact with a healthy pullback. Backlog growth, hyperscaler MOUs, and the post-spin GE Vernova margin expansion story are intact.

RISK

Hyperscaler capex pullback; data-center build-cycle mean-reversion; gas-turbine supply chain (engineering bottleneck); nuclear-SMR program timeline slips. This pick is correlated with `VST` already in book — sizing should reflect that, not duplicate it.

RULE

Add on tests of the 50-day or any clean reclaim of the 20-day on volume. Loss cap at the 50-day breakdown (`~$925` zone). Trim if the pair `GEV + VST` exceeds 12% of the book; concentration risk is real on the same AI-power thesis.